OWP 2022: Leading For the Future

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KEYNOTE

“THIS DILEMMA REQUIRES US TO PRICE SUSTAINABILITY IN TERMS OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT AND THE REVERSE. WE CANNOT DO EVERYTHING TOGETHER.”

INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AT PLAY The global macro environment is characterized by a new wave of inflationary pressures. For the first time in decades there is a combination of two different phenomena: demand pressures and supply pressures. Demand pressures, driven by monetary policies during the pandemic, has resulted in consumers in some countries spending at rates not seen in recent years as economies have opened up. In parallel, the war in Ukraine has negatively impacted supply chains and access to energy. The two types of inflationary pressures require different governmental policies, but these have very different macro-economic impacts. It is not possible to know which of the two inflationary types will dominate and this is causing further market uncertainty. “Different countries in the world are impacted in different ways,” said Bris. “This is important to take into account because inflation becomes a global phenomenon, and it triggers different responses in different countries.” Central banks are intervening and using tools of monetary policy to curtail inflation; however, he explained that this may trigger a further recession and inflation may be here for the long-term.

A NEWGEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE “Global inflation and the war in Ukraine are triggering a reorganization of world geopolitics,” Bris said. Goldman Sachs has called this “neobalization”, which is a new type of globalization in which two different blocks are emerging which have both social and economic implications. One of the economic implications is that countries are looking for closer markets. The economic problems are triggering a new set of international relations, which will have profound implications. “Neobalization is going to make economic growth harder,” said Bris. “There will be new economic blocks and more protectionism. The challenges for economic growth for countries depending on the external sector are going to be much harder. We are not going to be better off in the coming years, levels of prosperity will not improve.” Bris explained that geopolitical turmoil negatively impacts sustainability. “When European countries did not have access to energy as a result of geopolitical problems, we saw sustainability sacrificed from one day to the other.”

should be sustainable in our companies and our countries, and when it comes to technological advancement, it is a key differentiator for the future, both at a corporate and a country level. But there are trade-offs and difficult choices that will have to be made.

AN UNCERTAINWORLDWITH CONFLICTING MACRO TRENDS “We live in a very uncertain world, and uncertainty now is much bigger than ever,” Bris said, setting the scene for his thought-providing 45-minute keynote discussion. He explained that there are three key trends at play globally when considering how to ignite economic growth: technology, sustainability, and a new type of global realignment. “We know certain things, but the things we know are not compatible with each other,” He said. Bris said that the importance of each of the three trends, when taken in isolation, is obvious. For example, there is no question that we

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