Good - But good enough?

Seldom has gazing into the future that lies so close ahead of us been so unclear. It’s as if the future lies in a blanket of fog. Nobody knows how the virus will develop, especially in view of the colder season, when the flu will also return. When will there be a vaccination against COVID-19? What will the next waves of infection look like in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, and across the world? One thing is clear to all those involved in SEF. Interactive: there must be no second lockdown; the damage would be devastating. Two views of the future emerge, too. On the one hand, domestic demand has recovered rapidly and even catch-up effects are discernible. However, NZZ’s economics head Peter A. Fischer is not the only one to be warning of a wave of bankruptcies to come later in the year. The Swiss economy is dependent on foreign trade, he says, and if other countries’ economies do not recover, it will also affect Switzerland. Both FDP National Councillor Christian Wasserfallen and Hans Hess are sure that the export sectors will continue to suffer a major slump in the third and fourth quarters. Only China is showing a somewhat faster recovery.

Wasserfallen, like Hess, therefore reminds us that Switzerland must respond by investing in a good structural environment, in areas such as education, training, and future technologies such as 5G. Counting on a push for innovation in companies is risky. Many are currently asking themselves how they can invest if they are not making money. Small and medium-sized companies are also worried; the real crisis is still to come for them. SEF.Interactive participants take the same view. According to them, it is precisely these companies that are most at risk from the crisis and its consequences. What is coming a little further down the road will be much more difficult. Among other things, a large wave of layoffs is imminent, and not without good reason. In July, the experts at BAK Economics calculated that another 95,000 jobs will be lost by the end of the year.

This in turn will lead to a difficult social situation. Does the Swiss government actually have a “worst-case” scenario, some participants asked themselves? Christian Wasserfallen has his own take. He is unhappy with international developments in particular, as he well might be: the EU Commission’s summer forecast is gloomy, forecasting negative growth of -8.3% for the EU area, compared to the middle of the crisis, when this figure was ‘only’ -7.4%. Wasserfallen (who sits on the boards of various companies) would like to see firms move their supply chains closer to Europe again and build up alternatives whenever they can. Priority should also be given to key technologies such as battery production. Survey participants expect zero or negative growth for Switzerland over the next 12 months. Only one in ten is optimistic about the coming year. Surprisingly, though, the respondents take a much more positive view of their own professional future (see graph).

95000 jobs will be lost by the end of the year

The future is bleak – but not for us

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